William Schlesinger and John Christy hold opposing views of the potential danger associated with global warming.Each made his case last night during a forum in Hickory sponsored by the John Locke Foundation and the Reese Institute for Conservation of Natural Resources at Lenoir-Rhyne University. 

View the video of the entire 1 hour, 15 minute event.  The format is 20 minutes for each speaker with 10 minutes each of rebuttal then 15 minutes of questions from the audience. 

After a mostly benign weather pattern over the east coast, here comes some weather – followed by some cooler temperatures.

Two visual aids…

1.    Surface forecast maps:

Next 48-hours –http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx.shtml

and through 7 days –http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html (Hint: step through the loop backwards to follow the origin of the large high pressure area that is established over the southeast US by next Wednesday-Thursday.)

(both of the above from HPC –http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/)

2.    Outlook for the next couple of weeks –http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

from the Climate Prediction Center –http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

000

FXUS62 KRAH 130558

AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

1250 AM EST THU NOV 13 2008

.SYNOPSIS…

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE

TONIGHT. WARM MOIST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BRING CLOUDS AND

AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/…

AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY…

SFC ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWED 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE ALONG/

OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COAST…WITH A SFC RIDGE

AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. A WARM

FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA…EXTENDING NORTHEAST

ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. ALOFT…AN 850MBRIDGE WAS LOCATED JUST

OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. AT 250MB…THERE WAS WSW FLOW ALOFT

OVER THE CAROLINAS…DOWNSTREAM OF A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED

OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS…STRETCHING FROM MEXICO TO CANADA.

HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF LIKELY POPS UNTIL CLOSER TOWARD SUNRISE

THU MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NC…BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS

SHOWING NO PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AS THE

850MB RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE…OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL

VEER TO THE SE/SSE (OFF THE ATLANTIC) AND STRENGTHEN…PRIMARILY

AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. AS SUCH…EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP (SPRINKLES OR LIGHT

RAIN) TO BEGIN TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06-12Z…WHEN

ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING ACROSS

THE AREA. HOWEVER…LOOKING AT THE 00Z RAOBDATA…THERE IS NOT MUCH

IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL HELP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT…AND FCST

SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION IN ONLY THE LOWEST LEVELS (SFC-925/850

MB)…WHICH IS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING FOR AFCST OF LIKELY POPS BY

SUNRISE. BASICALLY…IF SATURATION DOES NOT EXTEND UP INTO THE

DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (WELL ABOVE WHERE FCSTSOUNDINGS ARE CURRENTLY

SHOWING SATURATION)…THEN IT WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO GET MORE

THAN SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA…WITH MANY

LOCATIONS SEEING A TRACE INSTEAD OF MEASURABLE PRECIP. BOTH THE

GFS/NAM ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A SPLIT…WITH MOST OF THE

MEASURABLE PRECIP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST (IN VICINITY OF THE

COASTAL FRONT) AND IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS WHERE LIFT WILL BE

ENHANCED VIA UPSLOPE FLOW. SO…MOST OF CENTRALNC MAY NOT SEE MORE

THAN A TRACE TONIGHT…WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IN

THE NW PIEDMONT AND SE COASTAL PLAIN. HEY…AT LEAST THERE AREN`T

ANY PTYPE CONCERNS! WILL SHOW POPS INITIALLY IN THE CHANCE OR SLIGHT

CHANCE RANGE TONIGHT…IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES…AND WILL UP POPS

TO LOW LIKELY (60%) BY/AROUND SUNRISE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT

STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH OVERCAST SKIES…AND WILLFCST LOWS RANGING

FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/…

– Changed Discussion –

AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY…

VAST MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNTS… TIMING… AND LOCATION OF

PRECIPITATION THESE THREE DAYS CONTINUES TO MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING

AND… UNFORTUNATELY… LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WHAT WE ARE SURE OF

IS THAT EVERYONE IS LIKELY TO SEE SOME RAIN AT SOME TIME DURING THIS

PERIOD… AND THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE WIDELY VARYING

TEMPERATURES… RANGING FROM SEASONABLE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THEN

BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL AFTER PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT ON

SATURDAY.

FOR THURSDAY: AS THE 850 MB WARM FRONT TRACKS TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY

MORNING… THE SLUG OF RATHER STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE APPEARS

LIKELY TO PERSIST AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEDGE

FRONT OVER NE SC. LOOKING AT CIRA OBSERVEDPRECIPITABLE WATER…

RAPID MOISTENING OF THE EARLIER VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE SOUTHEAST

STATES AND FL HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE LAST 12HRS… SUPPORTING THE

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEP SATURATION OVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC BY

MORNING. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPSEVERYWHERE STARTING 6 AM

THURSDAY… WITH A CHARACTER OF SHOWERS IN THE SE CWA TRENDING TO

MORE STRATIFORM RAIN IN THE NW CWA. FORECASTINSTABILITY IS MARGINAL

WITH SKINNY CAPE (MOSTLY ELEVATED) OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG EAST

OF I-95… BUT WITH A 35-45 KT 850 MB JETEXPECTED… WILL INCLUDE

ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. RAINFALLAMOUNTS ARE GREATLY

IN QUESTION. THE GFS BECOMES A BIT MORE UNSTABLE ALONG THE COAST AND

BLOWS UP HEAVIER PRECIP ALONG THE COASTALFRONT… WHICH IN TURN

LIMITS INLAND MOISTURE TRANSPORT RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS

OVER CENTRAL NC. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS MUCH LESS COASTAL

CONVECTION AND HENCE PLACES THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN

PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS. GIVEN THE PROJECTEDINSTABILITY AND THE DEGREE

OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER COASTAL SECTIONS… PREFER A LEAN

TOWARD THE GFS AND ITS COASTAL FRONTCONVECTION. WILL TRIM BACK

AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY… BUT MOST PLACES ARE STILL LIKELY TO GET

A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH. THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER DOWN BY AFTERNOON

ESPECIALLY IN THE WRN CWA AS THE LOW LEVEL JETDEPARTS AND LOW LEVEL

WINDS BECOME MORE SWLY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SURFACE LOW…

LEADING TO A DECREASE IN THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LOW LEVEL

MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE WRF-ARW ALSO SUPPORTS DECREASING COVERAGE IN

THE AFTERNOON. THE MORNING RAIN HOWEVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LOCK IN

A RESIDUAL WEDGE REGIME OVER THE NW CWA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY… WITH

HIGHS NOT BEING REACHED UNTIL LATE. HAVE LEFT FORECAST HIGHS LARGELY

AS-IS… 54-68.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING:PRECIPITABLE WATER

REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL WITH A FLAT SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW…

HOWEVER MODEL PW FORECASTS SHOW THE AXIS OF VERY HIGH (OVER 250% OF

NORMAL) VALUES SHUNTED EASTWARD TO THE COAST… ALONG/EAST OF THE

TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WEAKEN A BIT AND WITH NO

DISCERNIBLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AND VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE

AT MOST… HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO LOWER CHANCES (30-35%) ACROSS

THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA BUT HELD ONTO 50%POPS IN THE SOUTH AND

EAST. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS DEVELOPS STRONG CONVECTION

OVER THE FL PANHANDLE EARLY FRIDAY WHICH GENERATES A LOW LEVEL

POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND RESULTANT DIABATICALLY ENHANCED LOW

LEVEL JET UPSTREAM OVER THE CAROLINAS… LEADING TO MUCH HEAVIER

RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL NC AS COMPARED TO THE NAMWHICH SHOWS NO SUCH

FEATURE. WHILE SUCH A SCENARIO CANNOT BE FULLY DISCOUNTED… IT

APPEARS UNLIKELY AS ANY SUCH PERTURBATION SHOULD BE DAMPENED AND

OVERTAKEN BY THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOWAHEAD OF THE INCOMING

TROUGH. PREFER LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT CLOSER TO THE NAM OUTPUT… 52 NW

TO 61 SE… WHICH IS JUST A MINOR DROP FROM THURSDAY MAXES OVER

NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS. STAYED CLOSE TO STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR

FRIDAY HIGHS… 67-76… A DEGREE OR TWO RISE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST

HIGHS WITH ANTICIPATION OF LESSER PRECIP COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY A

PERIOD OF THINNER CLOUD COVER.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: THE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT

IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE

STATE SATURDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER THAN THENAM… AS ITS

CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK APPEARS TO LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES OVER

CENTRAL/EASTERN NC TOO MUCH AND ARTIFICIALLY PULLS THE COLD FRONT

TOO QUICKLY EAST INTO NC. BUT THE NAM ITSELF APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW

WITH THE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL LONGWAVE

TROUGH… AS INDICATED BY ITS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET/ECMWF.

THUS THE ECMWF TIMING… BETWEEN THE NAM ANDGFS BUT CLOSER TO THE

FASTER GFS… IS PREFERRED. LOW LEVEL FLOWSTRENGTHENS… TO 30-40

KTS AT 850 MB… OUT OF THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING

PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE. UPPER JET FORCING ALSO IMPROVES AS A 90 KT

UPPER JET PULLS OUT OF THE NE GULF… PLACINGNC IN ITS LEFT EXIT

REGION… WHILE A 140+ KT POLAR JET DIVES IN FROM THE WSW. HAVE

BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY

MORNING. WILL KEEP A RISK OF THUNDER EVERYWHERE BUT PRIMARILY

EAST… AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A PERIOD OF 6+ C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES

IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JETAND INCREASING 0-6 KM

BULK SHEAR TO OVER 60 KTS. THESE FACTORS… IF THEY COME TO PASS…

WILL LIKELY FORCE A BAND OF STRONG CONVECTIONWITH POSSIBLE BOWING

SEGMENTS… THUS THE RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS REMAINS AS THE

ECMWF AND SREF INDICATE 400-1000 J/KG OF CAPE. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES

TO DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES

SATURDAY WILL BE VERY TRICKY… LIKELY TO RISE MINIMALLY OR EVEN

HOLD STEADY OR FALL A BIT IN THE WESTERN CWA… WHILE READINGS IN

THE EAST PEAK IN THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH

DAYTIME HIGHS OF 59-72… ALTHOUGH IF THE FRONTAL SPEED ENDS UP MUCH

SLOWER AS THE NAM DEPICTS… THESE MAY BE TOO LOW. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT

57-64. -GIH

– End Changed Discussion –

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…

AS OF 220 PM WEDNESDAY…

DRY AND COLD ARE THE BEST DESCRIPTORS OF THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS

THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE.

FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY: THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE

SHIFTED TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH QUICKLY RISING HEIGHTS

ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY AND CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE

SURFACE FROM THE SW. A BLUSTERY NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE MAY START THE

DAY BUT SHOULD QUICKLY ABATE AS THE PRESSUREGRADIENT RELAXES. WITH

A DRY AND STABILIZING COLUMN… MOSTLY CLEARSKIES ARE EXPECTED…

ALTHOUGH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH

SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THESUBSIDENCE INVERSION

ALOFT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE ABOUT 30-40 METERS

BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY RECOVERING SLIGHTLY TO 20-30 METERS BELOW NORMAL

MONDAY… THUS DESPITE THE SUNSHINE… HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE

50S BOTH DAYS… 2-3 CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE NEXT PIECES OF SHORTWAVE

ENERGY WILL DROP QUICKLY FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA THROUGH THE

GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY/MONDAY… BRINGING A DRY FRONT

AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR DOWN TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS BY

MONDAY EVENING AND THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS

DEPICTS QUITE A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE

MONDAY NIGHT… HOWEVER THE COLUMN SHOULD SIMPLY BE TOO DRY FOR ANY

PRECIP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME

RATHER BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT…

ESPECIALLY IF THE 140+ KT UPPER JET CORE STRENGTHENS MORE THAN

EXPECTED AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT. THICKNESSES PLUMMET

FURTHER… WELL DOWN INTO THE 1290S BY TUESDAY MORNING AND 1280-1290

METERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACCORDING TOGFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS… AND

THE LATEST GEFS INDICATES 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER 2 STANDARD

DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS MAY STRUGGLE TO

CLIMB THROUGH THE 40S… AND WITH THE BRISKWINDS POSSIBLE

TUESDAY… WIND CHILLS COULD HOLD IN THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

-GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…

– Changed Discussion –

AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY…

SLY WINDS BETWEEN 2000-10000FT WILL PULL MOIST AIR UP AND OVER A

COOL SURFACE BASED STABLE AIR MASS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN

DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH 12Z THU ALONG WITH A

FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN…MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN

PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOW END MVFR CEILINGS TO BE COMMON BY 09Z WITH THE

POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SPOTS TO REPORT IFRCEILINGS. THESE LOW CEILINGS

WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 18Z WITH ONLY A MINOR IMPROVEMENT

EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. AMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM LOCAL AIRPORTS SUGGEST

WINDS BETWEEN 1500-2000FT HAVE COME AROUND TO A SE DIRECTION WITH

OBSERVED SPEEDS OF 25-30KTS. THESE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS

WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 17Z THURSDAY.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY…EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW ENDMVFR/IFR CEILINGS

TO PERSIST. RAIN SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORENUMEROUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS NE ACROSS THE REGION. NUMEROUS

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A T-STORM OR TWO SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO

EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT EDGES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE/LIFT LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY IN

WAKE OF THE FRONT. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFRCONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT

INTO SUNDAY.

– End Changed Discussion –

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…

NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS…LP

NEAR TERM…VINCENT

SHORT TERM…HARTFIELD

LONG TERM…HARTFIELD

AVIATION…WSS

000

FXUS62 KRAH 131140

AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

640 AM EST THU NOV 13 2008

.SYNOPSIS…

SOUTHERLY WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL PULL

WARM MOIST AIR OVER THE COOL STABLE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL

RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD

FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/…

AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY…

THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY COMPLEX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH

THE MODELS CONTINUING TO AGREE TO DISAGREE. RAIN HAS BEEN SLOW TO

MATERIALIZE EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST RADARSHOWS VERY LIGHT

PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND CONVECTION

BLOSSOMING OFF OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS PRECIP IS DRIVEN

PRIMARILY BY ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 295-300 KLAYER ACROSS CENTRAL

NC WITH NO OTHER DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISMS NOTED. THIS LIFT

IS FAIRLY SHALLOW IN NATURE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT BECOMING

FULLY SATURATED ABOVE 850 MB…THUS RESULTING IN PRIMARILY A LIGHT

RAIN EVENT.

LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING

AS ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ISENTROPIC LIFTPEAKING AROUND 12Z. THE

AMOUNT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THENC/SC COAST MAY SERVE

TO GREATLY LIMIT PRECIP TOTALS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AS

MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS INTERRUPTED. RAINFALLAMOUNTS OF GREATER

THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH MAY BE HARD TO COME BY THIS MORNING…

ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS

LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO

THE INLAND MOVING COASTAL FRONT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS TO

SHUT OFF BY MIDDAY AS THE 850 MB WARM FRONTSURGES NORTH OF THE

REGION AND THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES UNIFORM OUT OF THE

SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT THE BEST 850-700 MBFRONTOGENESIS SHIFTS TO

THE NORTH ACROSS VIRGINIA. MEANWHILE…THE COASTAL FRONT IS

FORECAST TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND AS A WEAK SFCLOW DEVELOPS ALONG

THE BOUNDARY IN SOUTH CAROLINA AND TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE FRONT THIS

AFTERNOON. JUST HOW FAR WEST THE FRONT MOVES WILL MAKE ALL THE

DIFFERENCE IN HOW WARM TEMPS GET AND WHO SEES THE BEST PRECIP

CHANCES. AS IS OFTEN SEEN…THE FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO GET HUNG

UP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. LOW LEVEL

CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AS THE SFC LOW

TRACKS ACROSS NORTH. THEREFORE…ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS

LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOCATIONS FURTHER WEST MAY END UP

BEING IN A RELATIVE PRECIP MIN BETWEEN THE RAIN ACROSS VIRGINIA

AND IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST. HOWEVER…THEECMWF IS DEPICTING

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASING AS A 125KT 200 MB JET STREAK

TRAVERSES JUST TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF BETTER INITIALIZED THIS JET

AT 00Z COMPARED TO THE GFS AND THE NAM. WITH THE INCREASED UPPER

LIFT…PRECIP MAY DEVELOP ABOVE THE SHALLOW SLOPED FRONT AND

AFFECT LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THECWA. WILL HAVE POPS

FROM HIGH CHANCE WEST TO LIKELY IN THE EAST. THERE IS ALSO A

SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON

WITH LI`S DROPPING TO -1 TO -2 AND MLCAPES CLIMBING TO AROUND 500

J/KG. AS MENTIONED EARLY…THERE IS A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL ON MAX

TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCATION OF THE COASTAL

FRONT. HIGHS 56 FAR NW TO 70 SE LOOK REASONABLE…AND FOLLOW

CLOSELY TO THE SREF GUIDANCE AND IS IN TOLERANCE WITH THE REST OF

THE GUIDANCE.

WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW

WILL MOVE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND SHOULD SERVE TO

ACTUALLY SHIFT THE FRONT BACK TO THE EAST. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY

FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WITH NO APPRECIABLE

DYNAMIC FORCING OR ISENTROPIC LIFT TO SPEAK OF. HOWEVER…IT IS

DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IF A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE MAY

APPROACH US IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THEREFORE…WILL MAINTAIN A

CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT…BUT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP

NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/…

AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY…

THE PRECIP LULL OF THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY

FRIDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RAPIDLY INCREASING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY

ON FRIDAY…INCREASING THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLYFLOW ACROSS THE

SOUTHEAST STATES. IN ADDITION…A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE

CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL GET CAUGHT UP BY THE

AMPLIFYING TROUGH. THE ECMWF…WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT

WITH THIS FEATURE…SHOWS IT RAPIDLY EJECTING NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY

AFTERNOON TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS DRAMATICALLY INCREASES THE

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AT 850MB STRENGTHENING TO

40-45 KT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY AND A 100

KT JETLET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY NOSES INTO

THE AREA. WITH THE ENTIRE AREA BECOMING WARM SECTORED IN THE DEEP

SOUTHERLY FLOW…WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE

EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

CURRENTLY HIGHS PROJECTED 67 NW TO 74 EAST. THESE MAY BE TOO HIGH

IF PRECIP DEVELOPS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BEGIN

TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE

GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THEFRONT…AS WAS

ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NATURE OF THE TROUGH. THE

FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AROUND OR SHORTLY

AFTER 12Z AND CLEAR THE COASTAL PLAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FORCING IS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL

CONVERGENCE…IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL HEIGHTFALLS…AND INCREASING

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH A 140 KT UPPER JETNOSING IN FROM THE

WEST. CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE CARRIED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF

SATURDAY. A CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL ALSO BE MAINTAINED IN THE

FORECAST. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DON`T CLIMB ABOVE 6

C/KM…BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOW MUCAPES INCREASING TO

500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE

ALONG WITH 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR…A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME

STRONG TO SEVERE. THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPERTROUGH AND THE

MAGNITUDE OF THE LIFT INDICATES A FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD

ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH THE RISK FOR ISOLATEDDAMAGING WIND

GUSTS. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON THE AVAILABLE

INSTABILITY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE HAMPERED BY THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS

AND PRECIP PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL

CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT

WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES CRASHING SOME 50 METERS BY EARLY

SATURDAY EVENING. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE MAY TEMPER THE COLD AIR

ADVECTION TO SOME DEGREE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH

HIGHS 60 WEST TO 71 EAST. THESE COULD BE TOO LOW IF THE FRONT

COMES THROUGH SLOWER. IT WILL TURN MUCH COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT AS

THICKNESSES BOTTOM OUT AROUND 1300 METERS IN THE WAKE OF THE

FRONT. SHOULD SEE A STEADY BREEZE OVERNIGHT WHICH KEEPS TEMPS FROM

PLUNGING TOO FAR. LOWS 35-42.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…

AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY

LITTLE CHANGE FROM EARLIER THINKING THIS PERIOD.

EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS L/W

TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. UNDERGOES VARIOUS AMPLIFICATION PHASES.

ON SUNDAY…EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS

IN FROM THE WEST. MAY SEE A FEW STRATOCU ACROSS THE FAR N-NW WITH

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. WINDS SHOULD ABATE LATE SUNDAY

AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGEAXIS EXTENDS ACROSS

REGION.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY…NEXT STRONG VORT MAX IN NW FLOW CROSSES THE

GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND AMPLIFIES L/W TROUGHOVERHEAD TUESDAY. THIS

FEATURE WILL DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT

WITH A REINFORCING SHOT COLD DRY AIR. MSLPPATTERN FAIRLY TIGHT

ACROSS AREA TUESDAY BETWEEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN VICINITY OF

THE CANADIAN MARITIME AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS

VALLEY. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD RESULT INBLUSTERY CONDITIONS

TUESDAY WITH THE WINDS USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR SEEN SO

FAR THIS SEASON. BOTH 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING LOW

LEVEL THICKNESSES BY WED MORNING IN THE 1270S. IF THIS WERE TO

VERIFY…POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 20S WED MORNING (PER

HISTORICAL DATA SET). ADJUSTING THICKNESSES UPWARD 10M STILL YIELDS

MID 20S. DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MIXING TUESDAY NIGHT

INTO WED MORNING DUE TO STRONG CAA…WENT WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER

20S TO LOWER 30S.

ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENT MADE WAS TO INCREASE THE WINDS SUNDAY AND

AGAIN TUESDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL CAA AND FAIRLY TIGHT MSLP PATTERN

DEPICTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…

– Changed Discussion –

AS OF 635 AM THURSDAY…

MVFR CEILINGS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NCAT 1130Z AND THIS

CONDITION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SLY WINDS

BETWEEN 2000-10000FT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOIST AIR UP AND OVER A

COOL SURFACE BASED STABLE AIR MASS. AT THIS TIME…THE RAIN

COVERAGE WILL BE EXTENSIVE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS…AND

ALONG THE COAST…COMPARED TO THE PIEDMONT. THE RAIN OVER THE

MOUNTAINS WILL BE SUSTAINED BY A JET MAXTRAVERSING FROM THE TN

VALLEY TN INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE SHOWERS

AND ISOLATED STORMS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE CAUSED BY AN AREA OF LOW

PRESSURE THAT WILL TRAVEL SLOWLY N-NE JUST OFFSHORE.

TONIGHT…WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR ARE EXPECTED AS THE MOIST AIR NEAR THE

SURFACE AND A LIGHT NEAR SURFACE WIND REGIME SHOULD CAUSE

WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO FORM. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD

PERSIST WELL INTO FRI MORNING.

RAIN SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER

LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS NE ACROSS THE REGION.NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND

POSSIBLY A T-STORM OR TWO SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY

SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT EDGES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE/LIFT LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY IN

WAKE OF THE FRONT. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFRCONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT

INTO SUNDAY.

– End Changed Discussion –

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…

NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS…WSS

NEAR TERM…JFB

SHORT TERM…JFB

LONG TERM…WSS

AVIATION…WSS

NWS QPF charts: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

Excessive rainfall guidance: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml  

Then follow the USGS stream flow during the week: http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt  

And see how the River Forecast Centers anticipate & respond: http://www.weather.gov/ahps/rfc/rfc.php   

And then watch for the changes as the pattern translates east: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html .

 Just wondering… are there any NCAA tourney games scheduled in the Georgia Dome? Nice tornado magnet.So, if you haven’t already walked through your severe weather game plan, it might be time to think about it:http://www.redcross.org/services/disaster/0,1082,0_591_,00.htmlhttp://www.fema.gov/hazard/tornado/index.shtmhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/