Spinning… (out of control?)

From the John Locke Foundation:

William Schlesinger and John Christy hold opposing views of the potential danger associated with global warming.Each made his case last night during a forum in Hickory sponsored by the John Locke Foundation and the Reese Institute for Conservation of Natural Resources at Lenoir-Rhyne University. 

View the video of the entire 1 hour, 15 minute event.  The format is 20 minutes for each speaker with 10 minutes each of rebuttal then 15 minutes of questions from the audience. 

A couple of  interesting weather days on tap, and once again, the NWS Raleigh forecasters do a great job explaining it!

A tip o’ the hat to the midshift for another thorough discussion!

Teachers: read from the beginning through Tuesday/Tuesday night.

FXUS62 KRAH 170812

AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

312 AM EST MON NOV 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS…

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST WILL EXTEND INTO

THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION

THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL

NC THROUGH MID WEEK. A BRIEF MODERATION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A DRY

COLD FRONT THURSDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

[Read more →]

G’ Morning! 

After a mostly benign weather pattern over the east coast, here comes some weather – followed by some cooler temperatures.

Two visual aids…

1.    Surface forecast maps:

Next 48-hours –http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx.shtml

and through 7 days –http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html (Hint: step through the loop backwards to follow the origin of the large high pressure area that is established over the southeast US by next Wednesday-Thursday.)

(both of the above from HPC –http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/)

2.    Outlook for the next couple of weeks –http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

from the Climate Prediction Center –http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

[Read more →]

More than enough weather happening today to keep any Mom, teacher, student, or hard-core enthusiast plenty busy. (I’ll bet the NWSFOs around the region are prepping their severe weather teams, too!) As of 0630EDT, there are watches and warnings of all types — tornado, severe thunderstorms (They go together, don’t they?), high wind, gale, special marine (not USMC!), you name it – across the southeast US. [Read more →]

Been a good-news story lately across the southeast with good rainfall (check the CoCoRaHS maps: http://www.cocorahs.org/), but too much rain is going to inundate the boot heel of Missouri and surrounding region early this week:  take a look at the NWS forecasts for that region.

NWS QPF charts: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

Excessive rainfall guidance: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml  

Then follow the USGS stream flow during the week: http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt  

And see how the River Forecast Centers anticipate & respond: http://www.weather.gov/ahps/rfc/rfc.php   

And then watch for the changes as the pattern translates east: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html .

I don’t think it was a weatherman who originated the quote, “Beware the Ides of March!” But this year, especially if you’re in Atlanta, it’s apt.Here’s a screen shot of the Atlanta (Peachtree City, FFC) radar showing a pretty well-defined hook earlier tonight.Then, as if to validate the radar, here are the severe weather reports from the Storm Preciction Center (www.spc.noaa.gov):along with the text version:

[Read more →]

If you awoke to the news of an earthquake in Indonesia, you can learn more specifics from our streamflow friends at the USGS. They also provide worldwide earthquake monitoring through their aptly named URL, http://earthquake.usgs.gov. Here’s their text for this event:The following is a release by the United States Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center: An earthquake occurred 310 km (195 miles) SSE of Banda Aceh, Sumatra, Indonesia, 310 km (195 miles) WSW of Medan, Sumatra, Indonesia, 335 km (210 miles) WNW of Sibolga, Sumatra, Indonesia, 1545 km (960 miles) NW of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia at 1:08 AM MST, Feb 20, 2008 (3:08 PM local time in Indonesia). The magnitude and location may be revised when additional data and further analysis results are available. No reports of damage or casualties have been received at this time; however, this earthquake may have caused damage due to its location and size. Earthquakes of this type sometimes cause tsunamis, however the USGS has no information that an actual tsunami has been generated. For information about tsunamis, contact the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers at http://tsunami.gov. [Read more →]

After seeing the news from the severe weather in the Gulf Coast states (mostly Alabama & Georgia: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/080217_rpts.html), the rainfall we experienced overnight isn’t all that exciting. But recall, we’re in the throes of a significant drought (http://www.ncdrought.org/ or for the latest drought assessment: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/news/content/nws.nc.drought.update.20080208.pdf), so the rain is an important event.A good soaking is certainly welcome, but where the rains falls is important.  While we had a good heavy rainfall – over 2 inches – in my neighborhood here in Fayetteville, the headwaters of the river basins from which most of NC’s population centers draw their water supplies weren’t so fortunate.  Refer to the CoCORaHS site  (http://www.cocorahs.org/state.aspx?state=nc) for more specific data. [Read more →]

Conditions are ripe for another round of severe weather now brewing in the south central US as shown by the Storm Prediction Center’s (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/) Convective Outlook  this morning.   As this storm matures over the next couple of days, it will make an impact all across the eastern US — not a particularly good thing for those traveling in the eastern half of the country this holiday weekend.   [Read more →]

Lots going on on the weather map, and the NWS discussion is a readily available resource to understand both what is happening and why. This morning’s (Wednesday 3:30 AM) discussion from Raleigh is here: teachable-moments-nws-discussion.txt, but you can find the daily discussions (updated at least 4X each day) at your local NWS office site. Click on the map to find your local office: http://www.weather.gov/